Future of the Electric Pickup
Like so many people, we thought the announcement of Tesla’s Cybertruck would be either a huge hit or a huge miss.
We wanted to confirm this just beyond our office staff so we used Twitter to see what “the public’s reaction” would be. Initial reaction was mixed but there were strong opinions about the design of the truck.
We also realized that sentiment may very well change over time. Will the Cybertruck’s radical design have a chance to grow on people? Is lack of EV chargers still a deal killer for potential electric pickup customers? We also really wanted to see what the reaction would be in traditional pickup truck markets.
Consumer sentiment, whether it is positive or negative, is only valuable if it is correlated to specific market areas that have the highest propensity to purchase. This is why you have to combine structured data (government sources, industry sales numbers) with unstructured data (social media) and apply it to a consistent geography.
Some interesting initial findings came up almost immediately…
Vermont’s residents have the greatest proximity to EV chargers. Lack of EV chargers remains one of the biggest objections to people purchasing an electric vehicle. The number of people per charger in Vermont was 1,101 and the next closest state is California with 1,775 people per EV charger.
Map showing ratio of people to chargers – VT and CA rank highest
Vehicle operating cost per mile (gas cost per mile or kWh cost per mile) had little to no bearing in areas where electric vehicle sales are increasing the most.
Initial sentiment was somewhat surprising with Arizona showing a very high negative Cybertruck sentiment but we also wanted to see how sentiment would change over the next week; assuming people would think about it and discuss among their friends and colleagues along with other people in their sphere of influence.
Cybertruck announcement day 1 sentiment – AZ high negativity
AFTER ONE WEEK
In reviewing week’s of data we noticed some distinct sentiment patterns emerging.
Texas – a very strong pickup market based on lifestyle and population has overall strong positive sentiment for the Cybertruck. Northern California had distinct negative pockets. Upper midwest states also showed an increasing amount of positive sentiment.
Upper midwest states are also a historically strong area as evidenced by states such as North Dakota where 41% of new vehicle purchases are pick-ups. Correlation of positive Cybertruck sentiment to this area could indicate an unexpected emerging market.
East coast metro areas typically scored lower positive sentiment for the CyberTruck as well.
Positive sentiment in Texas and Upper Midwest
Tesla’s strongest competitor, Rivian, also had strong positive sentiment but not as much volume of tweets during our analysis period 215 vs 66,000 for Cybertruck.
Positive Sentiment: Cybertruck vs Rivian over one week
NEXT STEPS – REFINING THE DATA MODEL – we want your input
Market data by its very nature is always dynamic. Sentiment for the Cybertruck will evolve as will sentiment for electric pickups as a whole industry sector. We want this to be a living data model and will be continually refining it.
Increasing accuracy of our electric pickup data model can be gained by integrating more geographically granular data (county, census tract level data, etc).
Amazon Comprehend NLP will continue to be applied across a larger universe of tweets.
Including home ownership rates by geography is working under assumption that homeowners are more likely to own an electric vehicle due to ability to easily have an at home charging unit.
If you have ideas and suggestions please contact us.
Xcalar Electric truck data analytics is live and ready for you…
Please contact us with your ideas and suggestions.